Market Moment - March 2026

Market Moment - March 2026

Rising energy prices are back in focus as geopolitical conflict in the Middle East pushes up oil costs. In this Market Moment update, our Director of Investment Management Anthony Valeri CFA® breaks down what the recent price spike means for markets.

Key takeaways:

• Oil prices jumped sharply in early March, marking the 5th largest five-day increase on record (+36.5%), similar to the surge seen after the 2022 Russia–Ukraine invasion.
• Despite the recent spike, oil remains within its long-term historical range. Oil prices frequently traded in the $90–$100 per-barrel range from 2010 to 2014 — a period when the stock market still performed well.
• Oil price shocks can limit short-term returns, but historically they have not derailed long-term stock market performance.
• The S&P 500 has seen muted returns in recent months, but over the longer term — nine months to one year — stock market performance is relatively strong.
• Ongoing uncertainty means investors are likely to continue favoring high-quality stocks.

Bottom line: Disciplined diversification and high-quality investments continue to be the foundation of resilient portfolios. 

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